Ghana recorded a trade surplus of GHC16.7 billion in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest data released by the Ghana Statistical Service. The figure represents a sharp decline from the GHC29.5 billion surplus recorded in the second quarter, despite continued strong export performance.
The data shows that total trade for the period stood at GHC145.0 billion, with exports valued at GHC80.8 billion and imports at GHC64.1 billion.
Gold remained Ghana’s most significant export commodity, accounting for 73.4% of total export earnings, valued at GHC59.2 billion. Crude petroleum followed at a distant second with GHC5.9 billion.
The GSS report highlights a continued concentration risk in the export structure, noting that the top five export commodities contribute more than 85% of total export earnings. This heavy reliance on a narrow range of commodities, particularly gold, leaves the economy vulnerable to global price fluctuations.
On the import side, fuel products dominated Ghana’s import bill, reflecting the country’s dependence on refined petroleum products. Gas oil recorded GHC8.1 billion, while motor spirit accounted for GHC3.5 billion.
Other imports included machinery, industrial inputs, and consumer goods, all contributing to sustained demand for foreign exchange.
Ghana’s trade structure continued to be heavily influenced by Asia, which accounted for more than half of export destinations and nearly half of import sources.
India and the United Arab Emirates emerged as the leading export markets, largely driven by gold shipments, while China remained Ghana’s top source of imports.
The country also maintained a trade surplus with African partners, a position largely supported by regional gold exports under evolving intra-African trade arrangements.
While the headline figures show a surplus, the Ghana Statistical Service cautioned that the situation appears less favourable when adjusted for inflation.
In real terms, Ghana recorded a trade deficit, with exports valued at GHC27.6 billion compared to imports of GHC33.1 billion.
This adjustment reflects declining trade prices and highlights the weakening purchasing power of export earnings relative to import costs.
The report also flagged concerns over declining export and import prices during the period, suggesting increased volatility in global commodity markets.
Analysts warn that Ghana’s reliance on gold as a primary export commodity exposes the economy to external shocks, particularly fluctuations in global gold prices.
Economists say this structural imbalance could undermine long-term trade stability if not addressed through diversification.
To address these risks, the GSS has urged government to accelerate efforts to diversify the export base beyond gold and petroleum.
The report specifically recommends:
- Expanding non-traditional exports
- Strengthening manufacturing capacity
- Increasing value addition to raw materials
- Deepening participation in the African Continental Free Trade Area
Officials argue that greater integration into African markets could help reduce reliance on traditional trading partners and improve resilience against global shocks.
Although Ghana continues to post nominal trade surpluses, the widening gap between nominal and real trade performance raises questions about the sustainability of current trends.
Experts say the country’s external sector remains heavily dependent on commodity exports and imported fuel, a combination that could limit long-term economic stability unless structural reforms are implemented.
The coming quarters will be closely watched to see whether diversification efforts begin to reflect meaningfully in Ghana’s trade composition.
Source: Wesleyannews.com
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